Broadway Grosses Analysis: Can Box Office Predict Tony Wins? | Playbill

Grosses Broadway Grosses Analysis: Can Box Office Predict Tony Wins?

Best Revival of a Musical nominees Cabaret and Merrily We Roll Along, plus Best Musical nominee Hell's Kitchen were all at the top of the list last week.

Graphic by Vi Dang

Box-office data for Broadway last week was much like the week prior. As per usual, The Lion King reigned supreme with $2.2 million, followed by Wicked and Hamilton. New high grossers Cabaret and Merrily We Roll Along filled out the rest of the top five, with fellow new title Hell's Kitchen again just barely missing the mark as the sixth highest-grossing show of the week.

Which makes one wonder—can box office success help predict who will be the big winners on Tony night June 16? If so, Best Revival of a Musical seems to be a dead heat. Gutenberg! is no longer running, but both Cabaret and Merrily We Roll Along are regular top grossers. The Who's Tommy didn't make The $1 Million Club last week, but it's not far behind at $838,728. As for Best Revival of a Play, An Enemy of the People tends to come in above Appropriate, but then we can't count out Purlie Victorious. The Ossie Davis play closed several months ago, but is currently streaming via PBS, which could help its chances with voters immeasurably.

As for Best Play, three nominees are still running. Of those, Stereophonic is performing the best at the box office, but Mary Jane and Mother Play are not so far behind. Hell's Kitchen, thanks to a recent uptick in ticket sales, has been sitting highest on the list among Best Musical nominees, but Water for Elephants and The Outsiders are both well within reach.

And, of course, it's difficult to say if box office success translates to Tony wins, a chicken-or-the-egg situation if ever there was one. For every megahit Best Musical winner like The Phantom of the Opera, you can find a Wicked that lost the Tony and still went on to become one of Broadway's most successful shows ever, still running more than 20 years later.

The truly good news is that lots of this season's newest shows are performing well. Even beyond the major titles like Best Musical, any Tony wins (and, of course, a nationally broadcast Tony performance) have the potential to give several productions long, healthy runs on the Main Stem. The lack of clear winners is also likely to make this year's Tony Awards ceremony an especially exciting one to watch. The big night will be here in just under three weeks.

Take a look at the full report here.

The $1 Million Club (shows that earned $1 million or more at the box office):

(17 of 34 currently running productions)

The 90s Club (shows that played to 90% or higher of their seats filled over the entire week):

  • An Enemy of the People (102.93%)
  • The Outsiders (102.16%)
  • Hell's Kitchen (101.85%)
  • Hamilton (100.33%)
  • Hadestown (100.03%)
  • Merrily We Roll Along (100%)
  • Cabaret
  • Wicked
  • Stereophonic
  • Moulin Rouge! The Musical
  • Appropriate
  • The Wiz
  • Mother Play
  • The Book of Mormon
  • The Lion King
  • Back to the Future
  • Uncle Vanya
  • Mary Jane
  • Suffs
  • MJ The Musical
  • Aladdin
  • The Great Gatsby
  • & Juliet
  • SIX: The Musical
  • The Notebook

(25 of 34 currently running productions)

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